Oscars,Betting the 2011 Oscars
The Academy Awards for Best Picture and Best Director normally go hand in hand - why then does Sports Interaction make The King's Speech favorite for Best Picture, but The Social Network's David Fincher favorite for Best Director?
The King's Speech is a 1/5 favorite for Best Picture in the Oscar odds, but its director, Tom Hooper, is 5/4 for Best Director. David Fincher is a clear 1/2 favorite for Best Director, but his movie The Social Network is second favorite for Best Picture at 7/2. What gives?
The Academy usually makes a strong connection between Best Director and Best Picture, with 59 out of 80 Best Picture winners also winning the Best Director Prize. So why isn't Hooper favorite for Best Director when The King's Speech is such a clear favorite for Best Picture?
Frank Doyle, a spokesman for Sports Interaction, suspects a hedge, a classic betting maneuver where bettors split their stake money to back two contenders. "I think voters of the Academy will follow a strategy similar to a bettor when a bettor hedges a bet. The King's Speech is one of these incredibly Oscar-friendly movies, that's very, very hard to object to and very, very easy to like.
"But The Social Network is a movie that documents our times, which is what art is meant to do in the first place. So while The King's Speech looks likely to win Best Picture, the Academy may wish to acknowledge The Social Network and can do that by making David Fincher Best Director."
Is that fair? Sure, says Doyle. "It's fairer than sports. When Green Bay won the Super Bowl, you didn't see Terry Bradshaw hand the Steelers' Mike Tomlin anything from Tiffany's for being such a great coach. Hollywood has little to complain about when compared to the real world of professional sports."
Finding Value
A number of the wagering opportunities have clear-cut favorites at Sports Interaction which can make for some good betting opportunities, although it's hard to buck the odds and go against Colin Firth for Best Actor or Natalie Portman as Best Actress.
Firth is a -5000 favorite at Sports Interaction and while James Franco has a slight chance to pull the upset, Firth is about as close to a sure thing as you'll find.
It's much the same for Best Actress, where Portman is a -1667 favorite and Annette Bening is a healthy +600. Bening may shock everybody and win, but it's difficult to buck the favorite.
There are several betting opportunities that could be worth a look. In Best Costume Design, Alice in Wonderland is a -139 favorite, while The King's Speech is even money. Those thinking it's going to be a banner evening for the King, could look here.
As Doyle mentioned, Fincher is a decent favorite over Hooper for Best Director and it wouldn't be shocking to see Hooper get the nod, although Fincher is favored for a reason.
For Best Original Score, the Social Network and Trent Reznor are -167 favorites, but Alexandre Desplat could be worth a look for The King's Speech at a healthy +175.
The Mexican film Biutiful should get the nod for Best Foreign Film and is priced relatively low at -152, as is Inside Job (-161) for Best Documentary.
If the Oscars are your thing, have some fun on Sunday and don't hesitate to place a few dollars on your favorite film.
The King's Speech is a 1/5 favorite for Best Picture in the Oscar odds, but its director, Tom Hooper, is 5/4 for Best Director. David Fincher is a clear 1/2 favorite for Best Director, but his movie The Social Network is second favorite for Best Picture at 7/2. What gives?
The Academy usually makes a strong connection between Best Director and Best Picture, with 59 out of 80 Best Picture winners also winning the Best Director Prize. So why isn't Hooper favorite for Best Director when The King's Speech is such a clear favorite for Best Picture?
Frank Doyle, a spokesman for Sports Interaction, suspects a hedge, a classic betting maneuver where bettors split their stake money to back two contenders. "I think voters of the Academy will follow a strategy similar to a bettor when a bettor hedges a bet. The King's Speech is one of these incredibly Oscar-friendly movies, that's very, very hard to object to and very, very easy to like.
"But The Social Network is a movie that documents our times, which is what art is meant to do in the first place. So while The King's Speech looks likely to win Best Picture, the Academy may wish to acknowledge The Social Network and can do that by making David Fincher Best Director."
Is that fair? Sure, says Doyle. "It's fairer than sports. When Green Bay won the Super Bowl, you didn't see Terry Bradshaw hand the Steelers' Mike Tomlin anything from Tiffany's for being such a great coach. Hollywood has little to complain about when compared to the real world of professional sports."
Finding Value
A number of the wagering opportunities have clear-cut favorites at Sports Interaction which can make for some good betting opportunities, although it's hard to buck the odds and go against Colin Firth for Best Actor or Natalie Portman as Best Actress.
Firth is a -5000 favorite at Sports Interaction and while James Franco has a slight chance to pull the upset, Firth is about as close to a sure thing as you'll find.
It's much the same for Best Actress, where Portman is a -1667 favorite and Annette Bening is a healthy +600. Bening may shock everybody and win, but it's difficult to buck the favorite.
There are several betting opportunities that could be worth a look. In Best Costume Design, Alice in Wonderland is a -139 favorite, while The King's Speech is even money. Those thinking it's going to be a banner evening for the King, could look here.
As Doyle mentioned, Fincher is a decent favorite over Hooper for Best Director and it wouldn't be shocking to see Hooper get the nod, although Fincher is favored for a reason.
For Best Original Score, the Social Network and Trent Reznor are -167 favorites, but Alexandre Desplat could be worth a look for The King's Speech at a healthy +175.
The Mexican film Biutiful should get the nod for Best Foreign Film and is priced relatively low at -152, as is Inside Job (-161) for Best Documentary.
If the Oscars are your thing, have some fun on Sunday and don't hesitate to place a few dollars on your favorite film.
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